Engine MRO Boom: Groundings and Capacity Challenges
The commercial aircraft engine maintenance (MRO) sector is still facing a significant demand surge. With a legacy of deferred maintenance during the pandemic now converging with teething issues on new-generation engines, operators around the globe are grappling with unprecedented challenges.
From soaring MRO demand forecasts to an increasing number of engines in storage and aircraft groundings caused by technical issues, here’s a detailed look at what’s shaping the industry today.
Lower Retirement Rates Mean Higher Maintenance Loads
Recent industry analyses indicate that the demand for engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul is set to reach a near-term peak. According to a study by Bain & Company, engine shop turnaround times for both legacy and new-generation engines are experiencing dramatic increases, with predictions that the MRO demand will peak around 2026 and remain constrained through the decade. This surge is driven by deferred maintenance during the pandemic, coupled with supply chain issues and the extended operational life of older fleets due to lower-than-expected retirement rates
Another critical factor is the reduction in aircraft retirements. McKinsey’s analysis forecasts that aircraft retirement rates from 2024 to 2026 will be roughly 24% lower than in pre-pandemic years, meaning airlines are extending the service life of their fleets. While this supports continued passenger growth, it also places an increased burden on MRO providers to service aging engines and airframes.
The Grounding Challenge
Engine-related issues continue to cause widespread disruptions. For instance, Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G family of geared turbofan engines is at the heart of ongoing maintenance challenges. Already well-documented metal contamination recall has led to inspections that take between 250 to 300 days per engine. This recall, which now affects all 3,000 PW1100G engines installed on the Airbus A320neo family, is expected to result in an average of 350 aircraft being grounded through 2026 due to extended shop visit durations
The impact on airline operations is stark. JetBlue, for example, has reported that an average of 11 of its narrowbody Airbus jets have been grounded for engine inspections throughout last year, with executives warning that “peak AOG” (aircraft on ground) levels are yet to come over the next one to two years. Similarly, reports indicate that Wizz Air expects up to 40 of its aircraft to remain grounded through fiscal year 2026 as it navigates similar engine woes.
Rising Numbers of Parked Engines
Beyond groundings, the issue of engine storage is becoming a critical metric in the sector. Traditional metrics now indicate that although the percentage of parked aircraft may appear high — 16% of the global parked narrowbody fleet has been idle for more than a year and according to reports from the last year, 12.5% of the global fleet remains inactive, though the latest data from operators indicates that these figures are declining. The reality is that many of these stored assets represent aging, maintenance-intensive powerplants that are not being reactivated due to prolonged repair times and limited spare engine availability.
When engines remain in storage rather than being scrapped or fully retired, the pool of used serviceable materials (USM) diminishes. USM are spare parts salvaged from decommissioned engines or aircraft — historically a crucial resource for cost-effective repairs. However, because many older engines are simply parked and not retired, fewer parts are available for reuse. This scarcity drives up the cost of available USM, making repairs more expensive and lengthening repair queues.
In turn, longer repair times delay shop visits, which hampers the overall throughput and capacity growth of MRO facilities. Essentially, the outdated metric that measures a high percentage of stored aircraft no longer reflects the true availability of USM, creating a supply chain bottleneck that ripples across the entire maintenance sector
Furthermore, supply chain disruptions, which were worsened by pandemic-related delays and technical challenges with new-generation engines, limit the prompt production and delivery of new spare parts. This forces operators to rely even more on USM, intensifying the competition for these parts and inflating prices. As repair shops face extended downtimes waiting for essential components, airlines experience prolonged groundings, reduced fleet utilization, and increased operational costs. Overall, this disconnect between the apparent aircraft storage levels and actual parts availability is a critical factor in impeding MRO growth and efficiency.
Amidst the modern tempest of challenges, the future glimmers with an old-world optimism. Long-term forecasts, remain robust. The global MRO market is projected to exceed $282 billion in 2025, driven by the expanding both commercial and military aviation sectors.
Fleets continue to grow, so, naturally, engine maintenance demand will only intensify. And this sustained growth stresses the need for expanded MRO capacity and more agile repair processes.
Strategic Capacity Expansions
To address the mounting pressures, powertrain manufacturers and commercial aircraft engine maintenance (MRO) providers are ramping up investments in repair infrastructure. French engine maker Safran, for example, has announced plans to invest over 1 billion euros and hire 4,000 employees worldwide to radically scale up its maintenance network for LEAP engines. This initiative includes new service centers in strategic locations like Brussels and Morocco, aiming to quadruple in-house maintenance capacity by 2028 and mitigate current bottlenecks
In parallel with physical capacity expansion, the industry is increasingly turning to technology to improve efficiency. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are already being deployed for optimizing maintenance scheduling and other complex tasks. Enhanced data analytics enable better forecasting of shop visit intervals and more precise workload management, which is critical as the volume of both legacy and new-generation engine maintenance continues to climb.
What’s next?
The next few years will be pivotal for the aircraft engine maintenance sector. While current challenges — ranging from supply chain constraints to technical issues on newer engine models — are severe, strategic investments in capacity expansion, digital tools, and enhanced supply chain management promise to transform the landscape. As MRO demand grows and technological innovations drive efficiency, industry players that can adapt quickly will be best positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.
The commercial aircraft engine maintenance (MRO) sector is navigating a period of intense transformation. With forecasts predicting peak demand in the mid-2020s, a significant portion of fleets facing extended groundings, and engines sitting in storage due to protracted repair cycles, the challenges are formidable. However, strong industry forecasts and substantial investments in MRO capacity — from both traditional players like Safran and emerging companies — are setting the stage for a resilient recovery. By expanding maintenance networks, the sector is poised not only to overcome current obstacles but also to drive sustained growth and improved operational efficiency in the years to come.
This comprehensive look underscores the dynamic interplay between operational challenges and strategic innovations reshaping the engine maintenance landscape. As the industry continues to evolve, stakeholders will need to remain agile and proactive to ensure that aircraft stay aloft and is flying efficiently.
